Fed Announces Stimulus
As expected, a week packed with major economic events produced a great deal of daily volatility in mortgage rates. The Fed's announcement was positive for mortgage rates, the Employment report was negative, and the election results were neutral. In the end, mortgage rates finished the week a little lower.
On Wednesday, the Fed announced that it will purchase an additional $600 billion in Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011 to boost the economy. The Fed expects to purchase about $75 billion per month to reach this target. This fell near the middle of the wide range of investor forecasts. The Fed will regularly review both the pace of the purchases and the overall size of the program. Added demand for Treasury securities generally benefits other bonds as well, including mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and expectations for this plan have helped lower mortgage rates over the last couple of months. Prior to the announcement, there was so much uncertainty surrounding the program that mortgage rates improved a little further when the details contained no major surprises.
Mortgage rates rose on Friday when the Employment report came in stronger than expected. Against a consensus forecast for a gain of 60K jobs, the economy added 151K jobs in October. Private employers hired 159K workers, the highest level since April. Revisions from prior months added an additional 103K private sector jobs. As expected, the Unemployment Rate remained at 9.6%. Average hourly earnings, a proxy for wage growth, rose 0.2% from September. Stronger than expected economic data raises future inflation expectations, which pushed mortgage rates higher after the report.
Also Notable:
• As expected, the Fed made no change in the fed funds rate
• September core PCE inflation rose at a low 1.2% annual rate
• September Pending Home Sales fell 2% from August
• The Treasury will auction $72 billion in 3-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr securities next week
The Week Ahead
Next week will be a very light week for economic data. The Trade Balance and Import Prices, which generally are not market moving reports, will be released on Wednesday. Consumer Sentiment will come out on Friday. There will be Treasury auctions on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. These will be the first auctions since the Fed's announcement about quantitative easing, and the results may produce a significant reaction. Mortgage markets will be closed on Thursday for Veterans Day, while the stock market will not close.
Thanks Mark!
Mark Townsend
Senior Loan Officer
Friday, November 5, 2010
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Luxury Real Estate Weekly Review
LUXURYREALESTATE.COM
We are excited to share with you that on Monday night we launched newly redesigned property details pages on LuxuryRealEstate.com with several updated functions that improve the exposure of all members' listings. Among the noteworthy updates are better mapping, support for streaming virtual tour videos embedded right onto the page and "people also viewed" recommendations for every property. Please see these examples:
Better Mapping & Also Viewed This Listing: http://luxre.com/r/6VC0
Streaming Video: http://luxre.com/c/L
Luxury Vacation Rental Industry Leaders Gather This November to Discuss 2011
Harry Norman, Realtors Releases its Fall Issue of Harry Norman Home
Hamptons 3rd Quarter 2010 Home Sales Report
Intero Opens Doors to Two Innovative Offices
North Fork 3rd Quarter 2010 Home Sales Report
Daniel Gale Sotheby's Introduces Innovative Mentoring Program to Branch Offices
Zephyr Launches Comprehensive Social Media Program for Realtors
Jack Cotton, Cape Cod's Premier High-End Realtor, Launches Selling Luxury Homes
Intero Announces Larry Klapow as the New Executive Business Strategist
Women in Relocation Holds Fall Event
Fannie Hillman posts 77 Third Quarter Sales for $19.9 Million
VACATION RENTAL NEWS
LUXE TRAVEL TIPS
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Week in Review - October 13, 2010
October 13, 2010
LUXURY REAL ESTATE NEWS
LuxuryRealEstate.com Holiday Card Photography Contest
Brown Harris Stevens Wins Affiliate-of-the-Year Awards from Christie's Great Estates
Zephyr Real Estate Wins IMA Website Award
Lake Nona in the News
Michi Olson Addresses Real Estate Professionals at Leading Real Estate Companies of the World Fall Workshop
Harry Norman, Realtors Awarded Christie's Great Estates Affiliate-Of-The-Year Honors
Top Hamptons Real Estate Agent Jay Flagg Joins Saunders & Associates
A Spanish Castle, Furniture Included, Estate of the Day
Hammond South End Office Welcomes DeAngelo and Ranco
The Process and Progress of a Significant Georgian Estate Restoration
John. R. Wood Realtors Moving to Historical Downtown Office
One of a Kind Custom Mediterranean Estate in Exclusive Paradise Valley
Hammond Wellesley Office Welcomes Gordon
Luxury Real Estate Welcomes New Member Kentucky Select Properties.
Todd Wilkie Joins Tradewinds Realty
SIGNIFICANT SALES
Magnificent Shanel Estate Sells
New Record Set On Casey Key
Lila Delman Real Estate Sells Berry Hill Estate in Newport, Rhode Island
Sale of "Cove Haven" - Newport Luxury Market Alive
VACATION RENTAL NEWS
LRE on Expert Panel at International Hotel Conference in Venice
Luxury Vacation Rental Best Practices Presentation
Seth Godin Gives It to the Luxury Market
Sign Up for the LRE Vacation Rental Conference
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Saturday, April 24, 2010
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Digital Luxury Magazine
http://issuu.com/realpropertymg/docs/aletii1_covera?mode=embed&layout=http%3A%2F%2Fskin.issuu.com%2Fv%2Flight%2Flayout.xml&showFlipBtn=true
Tops again!
Out of the top 50 Metros, Austin is projected to be the best performing economy in terms of the quickest recovery. In the following article, Beverly Kerr also summarizes reports from several excellent economic sources that report on Austin.
Central Texas Economy In Perspective
By Beverly Kerr, Chamber Vice President of Research
Recent reports from the U.S. Conference of Mayors and the Brookings Institution provide perspective on the relative pace of recovery among different metropolitan areas in this recession. And a new assessment of the state of the Texas economy from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas provides additional context for Austin.
The annual U.S. Metro Economies report from the U.S. Conference of Mayors provides a wealth of both historical and projected data on jobs, unemployment, and gross metropolitan product. Their projections include unemployment rates through 2013 and what quarter each metro will return to their former peak employment level.
As we’ve heard in numerous reports on the recession, job growth and reductions in unemployment will lag the return to economic growth that signals the end of the recession. Though Austin’s had a relatively moderate recession this time around, we know well from this region’s experience of the 2001 recession that the job market hangover can be prolonged.
The Mayors’ report, with data from Global Insight, gives the time frame for our return to peak employment as Q2 2010. Austin’s previous peak employment relative to this recession was Q4 2008, so regaining that within 6 quarters is considerably better than what is expected for almost all other metros. The prerecession peak for all U.S. metros, Q4 2007, will not be returned to until Q3 2012. In Austin’s experience of the 2001 recession, we peaked in Nov. 2000 with 690,300 jobs and did not see that total again until April of 2005—54 months or over 13 quarters.
Austin’s also had a better experience of the recession, relative to other metros, as measured by the unemployment rate. However, currently at 7.2% (NSA) or 7.0% (SA), unlike job growth/loss, this metric is higher than the rates seen here in the previous recession. Unemployment in Austin averaged 4.4% in 2008, but with projections in the Mayors’ report only going to 2013, we don’t know when Austin will again see rates that low. Rates appear to be projected to hover over 7% through 2011 and only drop to 6.1% by the end of 2013. In the last recession unemployment did not go above 6.7% here and only exceeded 5% for about 35 months. The unemployment rate is in uncommon territory statewide as well, at over 8%, its highest level in 22 years. The Mayors’ report projects the majority of U.S. metros will still have unemployment rates over 6% at the end of 2013.
The new Dallas Fed report of March 23 provides a broad ranging update and outlook, including how employment, unemployment and gross state product indicators in this recession compare to previous Texas recessions. The review indicates that job growth will return to positive territory, gaining 1%-2% in 2010, putting the state ahead of the nation again, but below the 2.8% pace seen historically. They also indicate that unemployment has probably peaked, but do not give any indications of the pace or magnitude of improvement that might be expected for this indicator for 2010 or beyond.
The Brookings Institution’s latest quarterly MetroMonitor tracks recession/recovery to date in the nation’s 100 largest metros, but does not provide projections. Austin has consistently placed in the best performing quartile through the recession. This quarter, the metropolitan profiles offer an interesting perspective on the initial 8 quarters of employment through the last four recessions.
This same perspective is available for Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio, or any other metros you might like to examine such as Phoenix, San Jose, Raleigh-Cary, etc. If this graphic’s legend isn’t presenting very readably, note that the current recession is yellow, 2001 is blue, 1990 is green and 1981 is red.
Central Texas Economy In Perspective
By Beverly Kerr, Chamber Vice President of Research
Recent reports from the U.S. Conference of Mayors and the Brookings Institution provide perspective on the relative pace of recovery among different metropolitan areas in this recession. And a new assessment of the state of the Texas economy from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas provides additional context for Austin.
The annual U.S. Metro Economies report from the U.S. Conference of Mayors provides a wealth of both historical and projected data on jobs, unemployment, and gross metropolitan product. Their projections include unemployment rates through 2013 and what quarter each metro will return to their former peak employment level.
As we’ve heard in numerous reports on the recession, job growth and reductions in unemployment will lag the return to economic growth that signals the end of the recession. Though Austin’s had a relatively moderate recession this time around, we know well from this region’s experience of the 2001 recession that the job market hangover can be prolonged.
The Mayors’ report, with data from Global Insight, gives the time frame for our return to peak employment as Q2 2010. Austin’s previous peak employment relative to this recession was Q4 2008, so regaining that within 6 quarters is considerably better than what is expected for almost all other metros. The prerecession peak for all U.S. metros, Q4 2007, will not be returned to until Q3 2012. In Austin’s experience of the 2001 recession, we peaked in Nov. 2000 with 690,300 jobs and did not see that total again until April of 2005—54 months or over 13 quarters.
Austin’s also had a better experience of the recession, relative to other metros, as measured by the unemployment rate. However, currently at 7.2% (NSA) or 7.0% (SA), unlike job growth/loss, this metric is higher than the rates seen here in the previous recession. Unemployment in Austin averaged 4.4% in 2008, but with projections in the Mayors’ report only going to 2013, we don’t know when Austin will again see rates that low. Rates appear to be projected to hover over 7% through 2011 and only drop to 6.1% by the end of 2013. In the last recession unemployment did not go above 6.7% here and only exceeded 5% for about 35 months. The unemployment rate is in uncommon territory statewide as well, at over 8%, its highest level in 22 years. The Mayors’ report projects the majority of U.S. metros will still have unemployment rates over 6% at the end of 2013.
The new Dallas Fed report of March 23 provides a broad ranging update and outlook, including how employment, unemployment and gross state product indicators in this recession compare to previous Texas recessions. The review indicates that job growth will return to positive territory, gaining 1%-2% in 2010, putting the state ahead of the nation again, but below the 2.8% pace seen historically. They also indicate that unemployment has probably peaked, but do not give any indications of the pace or magnitude of improvement that might be expected for this indicator for 2010 or beyond.
The Brookings Institution’s latest quarterly MetroMonitor tracks recession/recovery to date in the nation’s 100 largest metros, but does not provide projections. Austin has consistently placed in the best performing quartile through the recession. This quarter, the metropolitan profiles offer an interesting perspective on the initial 8 quarters of employment through the last four recessions.
This same perspective is available for Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio, or any other metros you might like to examine such as Phoenix, San Jose, Raleigh-Cary, etc. If this graphic’s legend isn’t presenting very readably, note that the current recession is yellow, 2001 is blue, 1990 is green and 1981 is red.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Enjoy Life
"In terms of balancing human values, I would give the enjoyment of life first priority and justify that on the grounds that if you don’t know how to enjoy life, you’re going to be a burden to other people."
John D. Drake
My wife Amy has this posted in a cabinet in our house and I believe it to be very true. I, as many of us do have a hard time dealing with the stresses of life and the certainty of death. Enjoying life means different things to different people but ultimately comes down to living by your core values and when you go to bed and wake in the morning you can look at yourself and know you are doing the absolute best you can and if today was your last day of life, the people who love you and care about you know that you love and care about them.
Enjoy Life!
John D. Drake
My wife Amy has this posted in a cabinet in our house and I believe it to be very true. I, as many of us do have a hard time dealing with the stresses of life and the certainty of death. Enjoying life means different things to different people but ultimately comes down to living by your core values and when you go to bed and wake in the morning you can look at yourself and know you are doing the absolute best you can and if today was your last day of life, the people who love you and care about you know that you love and care about them.
Enjoy Life!
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