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Tops again!
Out of the top 50 Metros, Austin is projected to be the best performing economy in terms of the quickest recovery. In the following article, Beverly Kerr also summarizes reports from several excellent economic sources that report on Austin.
Central Texas Economy In Perspective
By Beverly Kerr, Chamber Vice President of Research
Recent reports from the U.S. Conference of Mayors and the Brookings Institution provide perspective on the relative pace of recovery among different metropolitan areas in this recession. And a new assessment of the state of the Texas economy from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas provides additional context for Austin.
The annual U.S. Metro Economies report from the U.S. Conference of Mayors provides a wealth of both historical and projected data on jobs, unemployment, and gross metropolitan product. Their projections include unemployment rates through 2013 and what quarter each metro will return to their former peak employment level.
As we’ve heard in numerous reports on the recession, job growth and reductions in unemployment will lag the return to economic growth that signals the end of the recession. Though Austin’s had a relatively moderate recession this time around, we know well from this region’s experience of the 2001 recession that the job market hangover can be prolonged.
The Mayors’ report, with data from Global Insight, gives the time frame for our return to peak employment as Q2 2010. Austin’s previous peak employment relative to this recession was Q4 2008, so regaining that within 6 quarters is considerably better than what is expected for almost all other metros. The prerecession peak for all U.S. metros, Q4 2007, will not be returned to until Q3 2012. In Austin’s experience of the 2001 recession, we peaked in Nov. 2000 with 690,300 jobs and did not see that total again until April of 2005—54 months or over 13 quarters.
Austin’s also had a better experience of the recession, relative to other metros, as measured by the unemployment rate. However, currently at 7.2% (NSA) or 7.0% (SA), unlike job growth/loss, this metric is higher than the rates seen here in the previous recession. Unemployment in Austin averaged 4.4% in 2008, but with projections in the Mayors’ report only going to 2013, we don’t know when Austin will again see rates that low. Rates appear to be projected to hover over 7% through 2011 and only drop to 6.1% by the end of 2013. In the last recession unemployment did not go above 6.7% here and only exceeded 5% for about 35 months. The unemployment rate is in uncommon territory statewide as well, at over 8%, its highest level in 22 years. The Mayors’ report projects the majority of U.S. metros will still have unemployment rates over 6% at the end of 2013.
The new Dallas Fed report of March 23 provides a broad ranging update and outlook, including how employment, unemployment and gross state product indicators in this recession compare to previous Texas recessions. The review indicates that job growth will return to positive territory, gaining 1%-2% in 2010, putting the state ahead of the nation again, but below the 2.8% pace seen historically. They also indicate that unemployment has probably peaked, but do not give any indications of the pace or magnitude of improvement that might be expected for this indicator for 2010 or beyond.
The Brookings Institution’s latest quarterly MetroMonitor tracks recession/recovery to date in the nation’s 100 largest metros, but does not provide projections. Austin has consistently placed in the best performing quartile through the recession. This quarter, the metropolitan profiles offer an interesting perspective on the initial 8 quarters of employment through the last four recessions.
This same perspective is available for Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio, or any other metros you might like to examine such as Phoenix, San Jose, Raleigh-Cary, etc. If this graphic’s legend isn’t presenting very readably, note that the current recession is yellow, 2001 is blue, 1990 is green and 1981 is red.
Central Texas Economy In Perspective
By Beverly Kerr, Chamber Vice President of Research
Recent reports from the U.S. Conference of Mayors and the Brookings Institution provide perspective on the relative pace of recovery among different metropolitan areas in this recession. And a new assessment of the state of the Texas economy from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas provides additional context for Austin.
The annual U.S. Metro Economies report from the U.S. Conference of Mayors provides a wealth of both historical and projected data on jobs, unemployment, and gross metropolitan product. Their projections include unemployment rates through 2013 and what quarter each metro will return to their former peak employment level.
As we’ve heard in numerous reports on the recession, job growth and reductions in unemployment will lag the return to economic growth that signals the end of the recession. Though Austin’s had a relatively moderate recession this time around, we know well from this region’s experience of the 2001 recession that the job market hangover can be prolonged.
The Mayors’ report, with data from Global Insight, gives the time frame for our return to peak employment as Q2 2010. Austin’s previous peak employment relative to this recession was Q4 2008, so regaining that within 6 quarters is considerably better than what is expected for almost all other metros. The prerecession peak for all U.S. metros, Q4 2007, will not be returned to until Q3 2012. In Austin’s experience of the 2001 recession, we peaked in Nov. 2000 with 690,300 jobs and did not see that total again until April of 2005—54 months or over 13 quarters.
Austin’s also had a better experience of the recession, relative to other metros, as measured by the unemployment rate. However, currently at 7.2% (NSA) or 7.0% (SA), unlike job growth/loss, this metric is higher than the rates seen here in the previous recession. Unemployment in Austin averaged 4.4% in 2008, but with projections in the Mayors’ report only going to 2013, we don’t know when Austin will again see rates that low. Rates appear to be projected to hover over 7% through 2011 and only drop to 6.1% by the end of 2013. In the last recession unemployment did not go above 6.7% here and only exceeded 5% for about 35 months. The unemployment rate is in uncommon territory statewide as well, at over 8%, its highest level in 22 years. The Mayors’ report projects the majority of U.S. metros will still have unemployment rates over 6% at the end of 2013.
The new Dallas Fed report of March 23 provides a broad ranging update and outlook, including how employment, unemployment and gross state product indicators in this recession compare to previous Texas recessions. The review indicates that job growth will return to positive territory, gaining 1%-2% in 2010, putting the state ahead of the nation again, but below the 2.8% pace seen historically. They also indicate that unemployment has probably peaked, but do not give any indications of the pace or magnitude of improvement that might be expected for this indicator for 2010 or beyond.
The Brookings Institution’s latest quarterly MetroMonitor tracks recession/recovery to date in the nation’s 100 largest metros, but does not provide projections. Austin has consistently placed in the best performing quartile through the recession. This quarter, the metropolitan profiles offer an interesting perspective on the initial 8 quarters of employment through the last four recessions.
This same perspective is available for Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio, or any other metros you might like to examine such as Phoenix, San Jose, Raleigh-Cary, etc. If this graphic’s legend isn’t presenting very readably, note that the current recession is yellow, 2001 is blue, 1990 is green and 1981 is red.
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